Danger Time

So the market is down over 1% today at the half way point but it doesn’t look very good if it drops below  12500 for the dow and 1360 for the S&P.  It’s close but we’ll see if it pulls it out.  I feel that it should at least test the lows again and break up.  It may be forming a base as everyone seems to be getting a little more excited about financials and retailers lately.  Even the battered Apple stock has seen some action lately.  Techs might be getting to the point where it looks good but I think it needs to test it’s lows and at least form a base.  It’s barely recovering from it’s low so there is a little more time to come.

Perhaps the deciding factor will be next week.  Will the economy announce a further deterioration of the economy or will we see resilence.  I doubt the resilence thing if we can’t even buy muni bonds that are pretty darn safe, how can we fund anything else.  There are problems still.  They need to be solved.  No one is really raising money just asking for recapitalzation help.

Of course, there still is room for oil and commodities to raise a little more.   Perhaps the agriculture and commodities space may be a little crowded but on weakness there should be room for growth at least until we realize that the Indians and Chinese aren’t growing as fast as we thought.

The State of the Market

I  haven’t written in a while but I’m hard at work with many thing at this time but I’ve been driving toward perfecting my trading systems so I’ve been busy and not following up with writing.  But I decided to start a new blog call Mr Bull or www.misterbull.com in a few weeks and drop this one slowly but until then I’ll still be writing.

I’m currently sitting on Nymex, NMX pending the merger final announcements by March 15th.  Currently it sits at $105 as a price but it seems that the final price will be about $120 (pending no more Department of Justice letters suggesting the whole business model is a monopoly – ridiculous by the way).

I’m hedging through buying putts in a few positions over the last couple months – mainly banks, financials and commercial real estate.  But I’m feeling that the financial short is dying a slow death.  So I may need to find other things to hedge with.

But as for the market, it failed a test today as it should have broken it’s last minor highs but all of them failed today.  I guess they can try again tomorrow but it looks like a horrible chart as it seems to suggest a minute of pause before the storm for the rest of the week into important announcement news about the economy next week, namely the jobs report.

Hold on to your hats folks.