Archive for the ‘Gurus’ Category
Wednesday, February 27th, 2008
I haven’t written in a while but I’m hard at work with many thing at this time but I’ve been driving toward perfecting my trading systems so I’ve been busy and not following up with writing. But I decided to start a new blog call Mr Bull or www.misterbull.com in a few weeks and drop this one slowly but until then I’ll still be writing.
I’m currently sitting on Nymex, NMX pending the merger final announcements by March 15th. Currently it sits at $105 as a price but it seems that the final price will be about $120 (pending no more Department of Justice letters suggesting the whole business model is a monopoly - ridiculous by the way).
I’m hedging through buying putts in a few positions over the last couple months - mainly banks, financials and commercial real estate. But I’m feeling that the financial short is dying a slow death. So I may need to find other things to hedge with.
But as for the market, it failed a test today as it should have broken it’s last minor highs but all of them failed today. I guess they can try again tomorrow but it looks like a horrible chart as it seems to suggest a minute of pause before the storm for the rest of the week into important announcement news about the economy next week, namely the jobs report.
Hold on to your hats folks.
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Wednesday, August 29th, 2007
Sorry: Just some notes for you:
Users Guide: Part Two:
CHINA TRADE:
Eric Bolling: Yanzhous Coal (YZC) for electricity trade
Guy Adami: Petro China (PTR) just found largest find in oil in 30 years. China Mobile (CHL) because of 350 million users.
Pete Najarian: Baidu.com (BIDU) – The next Google – unbelievable upside.
Jeff Macke: The9 Limited (NCTY) – Gaming company and is owned by 15% by Electronic Arts
Chinese ETFs:
IShares China ETF (FXI) – Bolling says that FXI is better because of size.
Powershares China ETF (PGJ) – More heavier in materials
Vanguard Pacific ETF (VPL) – Owns parts of Asia
Global US Trade:
Adami says stay long until Beijing.
Yum Brands (YUM)
OLYMPIC PLAYS:
Eric Bolling suggest Hotel plays
Jeff Makes says buy Nike (NKE) because of their long lasting relationships.
Sybase (SY) –
MACAU TRADE: Gambling Trade
Eric Bolling: IGT (International Gaming) -
Adami: Starwoods Hotels (HOT)
Final Trades:
Macke: International Gaming Technology (IGT) and Nike (NKE
Najarian: MGM (MGM)
Adami – China Mobiel (CHL)
Bolling: Chinese Hotels: Sorry didn’t catch the name. (HMIN)
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Wednesday, August 15th, 2007
Fast MONEY:
Most of the traders were negative on the market and don’t see anything good in the near future. Karen Finnerman, the chairman is holding on to her puts.
Berkshire has been buying Nike (NKE), Bank of America (BAC), WellPoint (WLP), UnitedHealth (UNH), Burlington Northern (BNI) and Dow Jones (DJ) while selling Norfolk Southern (NSC), Union Pacific (UNP), H&R Block (HRB), Western Union (WU) and Pier 1 (PIR).
Carl Icahn buys Macys (M), Kraft (KFT), Clear Channel (CCU), and Biogen (BIIB)
Lambert buys more 10 million more shares of Citigroup (C)
Pete Najarian says that techs are still the safe haven. While Jeff Macke says it’s not a safe haven.
All the traders favor Target (TGT) as a retailer while Macke backs Costco (COST) as well.
Susan Decker, CFO buys one million dollars worth of Yahoo. Guy Adami and Pete Najarian said that this might be a chance to pick up Yahoo (YHOO) while Macke says it’s “dead” to him.
Mortgage Trade: Pete Najarian highlighted some addition shorts with heavy put buying in names like IndyMac (IMB) and E*Trade Financial (ETFC) which seems like a brokerage but is also a bank with $28 billion in mortgage! Also he said that there is more put buying in Countrywide Financial (CFC) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA).
Stem cell company, Geron (GERN) according to Guy Adami a lottery ticket.. but if it hits it will pay off big while Macke says it’s safer to buy big pharma with stem cell exposure.
POPS AND DROPS TAKES THE LONGEST TIMES TO WRITE SO HERE IS THE COPY AND PASTE:
POPS (stocks that jumped higher)
Nvidia (NVDA) popped 4%. A Salomon Brothers analyst raised his price target on the maker of video chips to $53 because of last week’s strong earnings report. – Pete Najarian thinks this stock is going higher.
iRobot (IRBT) popped 12%. The maker of the Roomba vacuuming machine is a front-runner for an urgent military contract to provide robots capable of sensing roadside bombs, according to Time Magazine. – Karen Finerman likes this stock.
Activision (ATVI) popped 4%. Investors took shelter in the video-game maker after it raised its guidance last week. – Jeff Macke reveals that he’s long this stock.
Fossil (FOSL) popped 5%. The 2 billion dollar watchmaker beat analyst forecasts, thanks largely to strong demand outside the US. – Jeff Macke says sell this stock.
DROPS: (stocks that slid lower)
Carnival Cruises (CCL) dropped 5%. The cruise line operator fell after the National Weather Service upgraded a depression in the Atlantic to Tropical Storm Dean. – Guy Adami jokes that Tim Strazzini must have canceled his vacation plans.
Fortress (FIG) dropped 7%. The hedge fund and private equity firm reported a $55 million second-quarter loss as compensation costs almost doubled. – Don’t own it, says Guy Adami.
RadioShack (RSH) dropped 7%. The Texas-based peddler of electronic wares fell along with other retailers in the wake of Wal-Mart’s comments about the consumer. – Jeff Macke says sell this stock.
Delta (DAL) dropped 2%. With hurricane season and fears about the economy growing, who on earth would want to buy the number 3 US airline? – Pete Najarian sees nothing but headwinds for the airlines.
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) dropped 23%. The natural-gas company founded by ex-oil wildcatter Boone Pickens said its second-quarter loss more than tripled, even as sales increased. – Karen Finerman says she doesn’t feel sorry for Pickens.
Disney (DIS) dropped 3%. The media giant is rolling over on virtually no news. – Guy Adami jokes that the ESPN 360 launch must not have gone well
HURRICANE TRADE: Hurricane Dean may hit the gulf coast
Guy Adami picks Flour Corp. (FLR) while Najarian picks Halliburton (HAL), National-Oilwell (NOV) and Weatherford International (WFT).
EMC: Guy Adami says that the reversal on the three times volume is a bad sign while Macke says it’s bad but he’s still in. Najarian is out of it too. Is this trade over?
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) – Finnerman is sticking with it.
FINAL TRADE:
Jeff Macke says stop shorting Home Depot (HD). Pete Najarian says short Countrywide Financial (CFC). Guy Adami says short the market and buy Short Dow30 Proshares (DOG).
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Monday, August 13th, 2007
In Japan and most of Asia, many products from electronics, newspapers, beverages, and anything that fits in a vending machine is sold through a vending machine. America so far only dispenses sodas, snacks and newspapers. Vending machines are by far extremely lucrative profit machines because it cuts out the most expensive part of the business which is the labor. However the problems comes when you would like to sell more expensive products without dealing with change or large sums of money. That is where USA Technologies (USAT) comes in. USA Technologies, Inc., incorporated in January 1992, offers a suite of networked devices and associated wireless non-cash payment, control/access management, remote monitoring and data reporting services, as well as energy management products. Basically they are the leader in vending technology from payments (e-Port), vending monitoring (USA Live), and vending machine energy management (Misers).
Although not profitable yet, the company is growing at a compounded revenue growth of 39% according to an article on Motley Fool which also highlighted this company as a microcap to watch but USAT has grown predominantly through relationships with Coca-Cola (KO), Pepsi Co (PEP), Mastercard (MA), and Sprint (S). While a very small company with a market cap a little above 100 million, there seems to be room to grow with the growing industrialization of the world and movement toward vending machines. Recently USAT announced a deal with Coca-Cola and Mastercard to use their eport system in their vending machines to a total of 7,500 machines in the US while suggesting global growth is just another signature away. The terminals allows Mastercard payments as well as MasterCard PayPass technology.
While that is a bigger deal, USAT supplies laundry mats and hotels payment services as well providing them a stable place to develop into other areas such as hotel vending. The idea is not that USAT provides ePort but the fact that it provides a comprehensive proven payment and monitoring system that is backed by 65 patents allows them to grow with more security from competitors. But the growth areas are numerous. It only has a deal with Mastercard at this time but having one with Visa or another credit issuer will increase it’s reach. Next there is the growth of vending beyond laundry mats and sodas. There are snack foods, gambling, hygenie items, electronics, newspapers, magazines, digital music, digital books, digital movies to pretty much anything. There is also the global growth. While many countries still lack the vending machines, it will eventually come.
SAC Capital Associates, led by billionaire trader Steven Cohen bought $10 million worth of USAT stock, for a 15% interest and Steve Cohen is a major guru to follow who has averaged a staggering 40% return since 1992. That’s why he was the second highestest paid hedge manager grossing over one billion last year. Another big stakeholder is Wellington Management, which owns an 8.1% stake. In a Businessweek article, Luis Martins, an analyst for Taglich Brothers figures sales will rise to $16.2 million in 2008, from $9.8 million in 2007. He sees the stock, now at 7.90, at 11 at yearend. Currently the price is about $9.50.
Another for the possibility of buy out. Why would a company like to buy out USAT? Well they have the technology that is accepted and proven. They have relationships with big vendors. They have the patents and security. They are growing at a fast pace especially now with the first major distribution of their ePort system with Coca-Cola. It’s expanding out into Kiosk as seens by Sony PictureStation Kiosk to print pictures. Kiosk will be a major format for product distribution. Who would be interest? Mastercard or Visa to have a monopoly on vending machines for their payment method. Banks or credit transaction processors. Imagine if every kiosk and vending machine was using USAT. This may take years to play out but USAT seems to on the right track but I would trust Steve Cohen.
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Saturday, August 11th, 2007
Not a new position for Seth Klarman of Baupost Group but a postion worth noting especially since Jim Cramer of Mad Money just interviewed the CEO and mentioned the stock a few times the last few weeks so we’re going to dive into the world of Seth Klarman and why he would put 5% of Syneron Medical in his fund that has returned 20% since inception.
After receiving his MBA from Harvard in 1982, Klarman start Baupost with $27 Million in investments but now he has over 5 billion in management. He got his BA from Cornell. According to a BusinessWeek profile of him in August of 2006, since then Klarman has returned 6,133% net of fees. His investing philosophy is centered on value and risk averse techniques which I think is not used enough except for the great Mr. Buffet. His emphasis is that investors are naive to look for returns which is the positive and never look at the risk. We all think yes Apple will go to $180 but we never think hey it could go to $80 instead.
“Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor” a book he publish in 1991 increased his notoriety along with his great returns among investors and academia. Since the book is no longer in print, it actually is a much desired item that goes for between $700 to $1200 on Amazon and Ebay. The book is such a collector’s items that many library either protect it or has gotten it stolen. I wish I could get my hands on it. I may track it down one day while the librarian watches me.
This value investor has in his great portfolio, Syneron Medical Ltd., an Israeli maker of aesthetic medical devices which provide cosmestic laser surgery and other cosmestic procedures. Last earnings were decent, Syneron earned $10.3 million, or 37 cents per share, up 16 percent from $8.9 million, or 32 cents per share, in the same period a year ago while revenue rose 36 percent to $37.5 million from $27.5 million. It matched analyst earnings of 37 cents while beating analyst estimates of sales of $33.2 by 13%. Not too shabby I say.
Also better news is that the company boost expectations of sales for this year to $146 million, up 25 percent from the prior year topping forecast of only 20% revenue growth. On earnings day, it rose to $25 but now as I write with the market downturn, it’s $23.56 trading at a PE of 16 and forward PE of 12. No debt. 93 million in cash. AValue? Yes. Growth?
Growth? Yes. It’s growth at 20 plus percent and with a Price to Earning’s Growth PEG at 0.94 is awesome. Recently they got approval for the Vela platform that removes that cellulite from the back of women…well men too..legs. It’s approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Union. Is America become more self conscious? Yes. Is America become more over weight? Yes. Baby boomers want to wear shorts? Of course, especially if they move to Las Vegas or Arizona. So Seth Klarman sees a decent trend and bought it for value. But it’s a growth play too.
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