Danger Time

So the market is down over 1% today at the half way point but it doesn’t look very good if it drops below  12500 for the dow and 1360 for the S&P.  It’s close but we’ll see if it pulls it out.  I feel that it should at least test the lows again and break up.  It may be forming a base as everyone seems to be getting a little more excited about financials and retailers lately.  Even the battered Apple stock has seen some action lately.  Techs might be getting to the point where it looks good but I think it needs to test it’s lows and at least form a base.  It’s barely recovering from it’s low so there is a little more time to come.

Perhaps the deciding factor will be next week.  Will the economy announce a further deterioration of the economy or will we see resilence.  I doubt the resilence thing if we can’t even buy muni bonds that are pretty darn safe, how can we fund anything else.  There are problems still.  They need to be solved.  No one is really raising money just asking for recapitalzation help.

Of course, there still is room for oil and commodities to raise a little more.   Perhaps the agriculture and commodities space may be a little crowded but on weakness there should be room for growth at least until we realize that the Indians and Chinese aren’t growing as fast as we thought.

The State of the Market

I  haven’t written in a while but I’m hard at work with many thing at this time but I’ve been driving toward perfecting my trading systems so I’ve been busy and not following up with writing.  But I decided to start a new blog call Mr Bull or www.misterbull.com in a few weeks and drop this one slowly but until then I’ll still be writing.

I’m currently sitting on Nymex, NMX pending the merger final announcements by March 15th.  Currently it sits at $105 as a price but it seems that the final price will be about $120 (pending no more Department of Justice letters suggesting the whole business model is a monopoly – ridiculous by the way).

I’m hedging through buying putts in a few positions over the last couple months – mainly banks, financials and commercial real estate.  But I’m feeling that the financial short is dying a slow death.  So I may need to find other things to hedge with.

But as for the market, it failed a test today as it should have broken it’s last minor highs but all of them failed today.  I guess they can try again tomorrow but it looks like a horrible chart as it seems to suggest a minute of pause before the storm for the rest of the week into important announcement news about the economy next week, namely the jobs report.

Hold on to your hats folks.

GAS STOCKS…NO NO – NATURAL GAS

Ok first of all, sorry for the lack of updates but I plan to revive the site and revamp it soon.  This site was mainly for fun and to help share ideas with everyone.  But I’m going redo the look and make it simple and more blog like instead of this insanity.  Ok here are some stocks to look for.  On Fast Money, Dennis Gartman, famous commodities trader revealved that they are buying natural gas and he suggested some picks such as UNG, the natural gas ETF saying that it’s forming a base.  San Juan Basin Royalty Trust, SJT and Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) were two picks that are Canadian energy trust which pay 8% and 15% dividend respectively.  So he says they track natural gas pretty well so I guess it’s worth a look but it’s very volatile.   Those are just some ideas.  Trade carefully.

Profit from the Disappearance of those Medical Records – Quality Systems

First before we get into the stock pitch, I wanted to apologize for the long layoff. I’ve been working on a web project that has yet to launch because of the numerous delays that stop me from seeing my baby take it’s first steps. I also wanted to say that I’m going to try to update a little more often because I love stocks and trading so I’ll probably never tear myself away from it. Also since summarizing Mad Money and Fast Money takes so long, I’m not going to do that and just go back to the basic point of this site which is to provide good analysis and some good stock picks…I mean PITCHES!

Quality Systems (QSII) is a company that I almost went into business against a few years back but fortunately, I was smart enough not to battle the numerous companies doing EMR or electronic medical records software. Our society is very very advanced but our medical system is a freaking dinosaur. Have you seen your doctors back offices? Yes file folders. What are we doing in our medical industry that we can’t get approvals from a computer system and automatically tell a system that we are allergic without the nurse asking fifty gazillion times. Ok sorry about that but seriously we all know that there has to be change. The advantage of medical software far outweigh the flaws.

Benefit number one is better and more accurate records which can turn to more accurate diagnosis. Two, cost savings in time spend on record management. Three, less change of human error in providing care and treatment. Four, ability to share medical information with other doctors so all issues are known so related information is taken into consideration while the doctor is making a decision. Five, we save some darn trees. The list can go on and on mainly because I did a business plan on this industry but the benefits are undeniable. So undeniable that Congress is in the progress of enacting legislation to force this software onto the medical system. Yes making good record keeping the law. How novel?

There are a few companies that will benefit. There is Cerner (CERN), General Electric (GE), Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. (MDRX), and a tons more. While Cerner and General Electric are much too big to focus on this industry, the two companies that will benefit looks like will be Allscripts and Quality Systems who exclusively develop the software. Both companies were mentioned by Pete Najarian on CNBC’s Fast Money and both companies have a strong foothold although Allscripts is much bigger with a market cap of 1.4B, PE of 85, and revenue of 260M. Quality System is a much better value it seems from the fundmental stand point where it stands slightly below 1B market cap but with 29 PE and a forward PE of only about 20. The price per earnings growth (PEG) is a measly 0.96 with a clean balance sheet of NO DEBT and 70M in cash. The growth rate for both companies is about 16% but with Congress intervention, these stocks will move like crazy especially Quality System that has been beaten down with a 25% short position – any move up will be magnified.

The chart doesn’t look great but you can see that there is a turning point technically as you see there is move in the MACD to the upside on strong volume and the money is starting to flow back. Today it had a good move on strong volume but expect a huge move when there is more news of legislation. You hear it here – Quality Systems.

FAST MONEY: CHINA TRADE: USERS GUIDE PART TWO

Sorry: Just some notes for you:

Users Guide: Part Two:

CHINA TRADE:

Eric Bolling: Yanzhous Coal (YZC) for electricity trade
Guy Adami: Petro China (PTR) just found largest find in oil in 30 years. China Mobile (CHL) because of 350 million users.
Pete Najarian: Baidu.com (BIDU) – The next Google – unbelievable upside.
Jeff Macke: The9 Limited (NCTY) – Gaming company and is owned by 15% by Electronic Arts

Chinese ETFs:

IShares China ETF (FXI) – Bolling says that FXI is better because of size.

Powershares China ETF (PGJ) – More heavier in materials

Vanguard Pacific ETF (VPL) – Owns parts of Asia

Global US Trade:

Adami says stay long until Beijing.
Yum Brands (YUM)

OLYMPIC PLAYS:
Eric Bolling suggest Hotel plays
Jeff Makes says buy Nike (NKE) because of their long lasting relationships.

Sybase (SY) –

MACAU TRADE: Gambling Trade
Eric Bolling: IGT (International Gaming) –
Adami: Starwoods Hotels (HOT)

Final Trades:

Macke: International Gaming Technology (IGT) and Nike (NKE
Najarian: MGM (MGM)
Adami – China Mobiel (CHL)
Bolling: Chinese Hotels: Sorry didn’t catch the name. (HMIN)