Refine Trade update and Market outlook

I got into Valero and Tesoro last week and both are up double digits as well as selling calls on them has increase profits significantly so I’m winding down the trade now.  They have ran more than the market but not more than the financials which seems a little over done to me.

My suggestion is that the financials are not at a bottom yet.  I was short Citibank through putts which have lost value the last couple days but it was a safe hedge so the loss was more than offset by the refiner trade.

I think the next trade may be shorting gold related stocks when they rally a little bit.  I should have thought of this before but didn’t even come to mind.  What a dope!  But I still need more research.

As for the market, it’s been a nice rally but be aware of this Friday’s jobs report that may ruin everything as all the markets are headed toward resistance again but slight higher though which may signify bottom but I believe it’s a fake rally.  Not all the earnings have been marked down yet especially with a recession coming.  I will write a post about inflation soon.  The resistance levels are as follows:

DOW – 12,800         S&P – 1,420        NAS – 2,440

They are getting close so buy those putts for safety.  Selling calls at this moment doesn’t seem worth while as volatility is down.

Btw, I had a comment about the Nymex trade which I did take a small loss because I’ve been selling $3 calls for the six months that I was holding it.  Almost $20 in profit so that lowered my risk but I still managed a loss.  Yes it was a bad trade for one huge reason.  There was no edge on the trade as all the information as available and not catalyst but I still think if the market wasn’t spiraling to it’s death, the deal would have gone through at plus $140.

Good luck trading.

Currently holding: Long VLO, Short GRMN, C